Send me real-time posts from this site at my email
TradingView

December 20 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News

December 20 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News

Description:

An analysis for the week ahead.

Points of Interest:

$3,740.75 and 3773.75 price extensions, $3,724.25 all-time rally high, the micro-composite HVNode at $3,707.75, $3,691.00, and $3,667.75, as well as the $3,680 LVNode and poor structure near the $3,625.00 balance-area low.

Technical:

Amid last Friday’s selling, responsive buyers surfaced at $3,680.00, a low-volume area that denotes directional conviction.

Given that the higher-time frame breakout remains intact and selling appears measured, participants must monitor whether the S&P 500 holds above the $3,680.00 low-volume area. Auctioning below that reference would denote a change in conviction. Participants would then look for a response at the high-volume area near $3,667.75. Initiating below that area would likely portend rotation, further balancing.

Fundamental:

After Bitcoin breached $20,000, Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments suggested the digital asset could auction much higher. https://bloom.bg/3mEbUOp

It’s based on the scarcity and relative valuation such as things like gold as a percentage of GDP. So you know, Bitcoin actually has a lot of the attributes of gold and at the same time has an unusual value in terms of transactions.

Simply put, Bitcoin’s scarcity, combined with easy monetary policy , should push the currency as high as $400,000, Minerd believes.

Key Events:

Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

Tuesday: GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Prices, Corporate Profits, GDP Price Index, PCE Prices, CB Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales.

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index, Personal Income , Personal Spending, House Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, New Home Sales, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change.

Thursday: Durable Good Orders, Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average.

Recent News:

Fed’s Daly suggests new stimulus bill will be ‘unequivocally beneficial’ to Americans. https://reut.rs/3mBjJ7E

Financial markets have largely priced-in 2021’s positive outlook, economic recovery. https://bit.ly/2LUmR1H

Unpacking the driving force behind high-quality cyclicals in this stage of the recovery. https://bit.ly/3nDYV0m

Weaker debt issuers would be most at risk in the event of a severe global lockdown. https://bit.ly/2WutFVI

Anticipate benign inflation longer term due to higher rate of technological innovation. https://bit.ly/37BmNfJ

Italy has a patient with a new COVID coronavirus strain; nations banning UK flights. https://bit.ly/3rfwjNd

In 2021, collateral quality will continue to decline while structures adapt to downturn. https://bit.ly/2KFZM23

‘Extraordinarily Easy’: U.S. final conditions are very accommodative, per Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/3nEET5X

2021 Outlook: The speed and extent of recovery will vary by asset class and region. https://bit.ly/3pbr4wo

Infrastructure could be the catalyst the global economy needs to regenerate growth. https://bit.ly/2WuswNU

China on track to become the world’s biggest refiner with 20 mil b/d capacity by 2025. https://bit.ly/3mD7jMv

IEA Coal 2020 report displays recent global and regional trends in demand and trade. https://bit.ly/38pfA1d

IEA Energy Efficiency 2020 report displays global developments in energy efficiency. https://bit.ly/2KFxXaj

The U.S. Congress finalizing a $900 billion COVID-19 aid package, but votes not set. https://reut.rs/38o0lWA

Leverage debt issuers will continue to stabilize from virus, but default rates may rise. https://bit.ly/2WuvemJ

Globally systemically important banks’ growth may herald growing risks, Fitch says. https://bit.ly/3pbFjB6

FDA authorization of Pfizer Inc’s (NYSE: PFE ) vaccine is a credit positive for the firm. https://bit.ly/3mBYp1B

Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) updated subscription guidance for its Disney+ higher. https://bit.ly/3mBYp1B

With collateral still weak, CLOs will incorporate flexibility for managing stressed assets. https://bit.ly/3p78Dc7

First-day IPO pops leave billions on the table, raising questions about pricing methods. https://bit.ly/38ntzVp

The U.S. has added dozens of Chinese companies including SMIC, DJI to a blacklist. https://reut.rs/2WA1Lrj

Canada and Britain closing in on a deal to address post-Brexit tariffs, disagreements. https://reut.rs/34wOioz

Key Metrics:

Sentiment: 43.4% Bullish , 30.3% Neutral, 26.3% Bearish as of 12/16/2020. https://bit.ly/330VhEp

Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 4,436,633,610 as of 12/18/2020. https://bit.ly/2UpgtRE

Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 45.1% as of 12/18/2020. https://bit.ly/2UpgtRE

Disclaimer:

This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.

In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue