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CL - Crude Oil / Larger Structure and Clarification 1/3

CL - Crude Oil / Larger Structure and Clarification 1/3

Need to Clarify my position for Crude Oil with respect to the Bullish stance and
a retest of the Prior Highs as there appear to be confusion surrounding prior
commentary - ​Crude Oil would become a very large Position for the Next run in Oil .

Time is nowhere near this Entry - Not remotely Close.

We are not encouraged by the current Price Action, not at all.

Hopefully, this provides clarity - it is not time to be bullish for reasons we have
outlined in prior commentaries from both a Fundamental Energy Complex
Analysis and as a Trending Instrument.


CL Commentary for today will be provided in 3 separate Posts.

Commentary 1 is the Larger Structure.

Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Structure is - very poor.

As a Trending Instrument, it stays in Trend with few exceptions.

Counter-Trends at Measured Move Price Objectives are part and
parcel of the Larger Structure.

How these behave will be illustrated in the following Commentaries 2 & 3.

There are Limits to Counter-Trends, most often the Momentum
and Trending Cloud sets the Upper Limit.

SMAs , also provide limits, the 21 and 34 SMAs set ceilings as well.


The salient takeaway for CL is one of immense Risk as it has measured
moves to 61 - 57 - 38 - 23

Crude Oil has been leading the decline, it is a leader.

It signifies Overall Economic Activity, which we have shown to be on
a very rapid decline for many months, regardless of the Pabulum from
the Ministry of Confidence.

Confidence has collapsed as Humanity comes to grips with new
arrangements to their realities. They are quite dire. This is not my
opinion, it is grounded in facts - based on mathematical realities.

Opinions vary, in no way does that noise enter the analysis.


The Larger Structure for Crude Oil illustrates this unwinding of
both Economic Activity and Confidence.

There are 2 Primary Sentiment Indicators for Confidence - UMich
and CB - samples sizes are 500/3000 respectively. Miniscule
by design.

Both have collapsed and are not going to recover much as we
are in the late stages of the Equity Bull Market.


Crude Oil VX is measured by the OVX , it is an important metric
and one which should be used daily.

API , EIA , RIGs - all complete BS and used to guide Confidence,
we documented this year ago and it has only become far more
insidious as to Mis-Reporting Factual Data.

Make no mistake, it is all a large smokescreen.

Price tells you everything you need to know, it has confirmed
the Failures Crude Oil .


As well drill down into Time for Crude Oil , we will see a number
of distinct patterns appear in Commentaries 2 and 3 to follow.

Price remains in a very Dangerous Area at present, the Risks
are immense.

Part 2 will follow in several hours.

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