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ES - 1Hr Structure - Complexity / Convexity

ES - 1Hr Structure - Complexity / Convexity

ES Short Duration Indicator Conditions on many Parameters are excessive.

Weekly close for the ES @ 4536.50 - prior Weekly Close @ 4462.50 / 74 Handles

Friday's Range 4515.50 - 4151.50 / 40 Handles

Weekly Volume declined by 14.7%

The November VIX closed the Week 100 Ticks below the prior Weekly close
for the November VIX CT ( VXX )

October VIX CT ( VXV ) settled @ 398 Ticks Spread.

VXV traded a New Low for 2021 on the Daily Duration TF.

VVIX traded to the Corner @ 105.52 on Friday.

VX Complex Instruments are suggesting a Shorter Term Low as many reside
at Weekly Support LTL's.

UVXY is an excellent example as the VXX 30 Day Maturity & VXV (OCT VX - @ Settle)


Our indications off the Reversal initially were to remain cautious, patient and observe
as Price began to provide the MATH.

The complexity of this Counter-Trend would expand - we have the 1Hr 50SMA is now
above the 200SMA. The RSI remains elevated.

Momentum Signals remain in BUY. Weekly signals have not turned to BUY.

It did - 30days of downtrend were erased in 8 days of a very aggressive counter-trend
ahead of EPS for Q3.

Lowered Guidance was the preferred shadow reduction to expectations. Companies
preferred this as opposed to actual warnings. We see the results, largely exceeding
the lowest Tiers of reduced guidance - INTC is an excellent example - It declined
significantly after hours.

For the NQ, this placed a significant drag on TECH, the ES remained, on a relative
basis - unfazed.

Rotation remains in trade, with the RTY being used, again, to Park Capital. Small-Cap
EPS is widely unreported and the Russell has long been used as the Lot.


The question which hangs in the Balance - is 4/5 complete?

Conversely, is 3/5 complete?

Is 5/5 Beginning?

And the Answer:

Complex Structures at present, as overthrows are often achieved to all signals prior
to a Larger Decline, December - February of 2020 demonstrates these phenomena,
Large Divergences in LArger timeframes, resolve to Trend Lines only to collapse and
make Lower Lows.

Mixed Indications are that - Mixed - Buyer/Sellers remain in extreme competition for

Was this a simple correction, or is there more to come...

We will see as this unfolds.

Price did finish the Week on a Positive Close.

The Rising Wedge broke down, the Elevated conditions require time to perform one
of two events - Gap Fills below or Ranging near the Highs.


- HK

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